On Jan 20, 2017, SUFE China Investment Outlook 2017 Annual Conference held successfully in lecture hall I of Entrepreneurship Center in SUFE Wuchuan Campus. The Conference aims at display the updated research achievements of SUFE Investment Dept., learn from industrial leaders’ wisdom, interpret macro economics trend, and instruct investment direction. With subject on Investment and Financing Mechanism Innovation and Private Investment Stimulation, the conference conducted the release activity of China Investment Outlook Report. Dozens of guests from UN Trade and Development Agency, the Industry, Financial Sector, and universities attended the conference and had heated exchange and discussion. This Conference is also part of the series activities of SUFE Centennial Anniversary, supported by People’s Daily, Xinhua News Agency, China Business Network, Inside Information on Economic Reform.
The Conference concluded Opening Ceremony, Report Release, Peak Forum, and Round-table Salon four parts. In the opening ceremony, SUFE Vice President Professor Yao Linzheng and SPEA Dean Professor Liu Xiaobing made welcome notes. Professor Yao believed that, this conference had a profound meaning both to facilitate national economy development and to SUFE discipline development and talent training. Professor Liu Xiaobing showed our warm welcome and extended our gratitude to presented guests.
The Report Release Sector was host by SUFE Planing and Development Department Director, Investment Economics PhD Tutor Professor Ying Wangjiang. SUFE Investment Department Director Professor Chen Jie released the 2017 China Investment Outlook Report. Professor Chen Jie first reviewed China’s Macro investment in 2016. He believed that, under the background of a continuous sharp decline of investment rate in 2012-2015, the stabilized investment rate in 2016 did not come easy and made huge contribution, especially the increase of investment in third industry, and the increase of investment in Real Estate and infrastructure also played vital role. On the highly controversial contrast of the rapid increase of state investment and sharp decline of private investment, Professor Chen Jie said, private investment was more sensitive to cost pressure, periodic economic fluctuation and financing restrain by addressing overcapacity and deleverage and there were more restrains for private investment in the third industry, while state investment had the responsibility for steady growth. In 2017, professor Chen Jie believed, under the background of 19 th National Congress and government’s positive policies, the investment environment will be more relaxed and friendly, private investment and state investment will both increase and cooperated with each other to achieve double-drive.
Then the Investment Outlook Report Project Team Member Dr. Nong Huifu introduced their quantitative measure of key indicators of 2017 investment. The project team, combined HW exponential smoothing method and VAR Model, predicted that, the 2017 China fixed assert investment growth rate will be around 9.5%, added 1.4% to that of 2016, which shows that investment will further increase; the 2017 third industry investment growth rate will be around 11.9%, added 1% to that of 2016, showing that economics structure will be adjusted; the 2017 private investment growth rate will be around 8.5%, added 5.3% to that of 2016, showing that private investment will have a strong rebound; the 2017 real estate investment growth rate will be around 9.3%, added 2.7% to that of 2016,showing that real estate investment is not economic engine any more but still pressure regulator. The Project team also reviewed 2016 investment, predicted 2017 investment, and conducted quantitative measure of key indicators.
Then, Deputy Team Leader, SUFE investment dept. Associate Professor Yang Ye reviewed the investment and financing reform and development in recent years and summarized the reform guideline: Clear the division of the central and local powers, improve government decision-making mechanism, explore new way of government investment, improve investment project audit system, improve the supervision system and optimization control to the greatest extent. She said the reform would include Strengthen the platform enterprise’s market legal person subject position as a general enterprise, look at the change of local debt financing limit and promote more change to direct financing from indirect ones.
Followed is the Peak Forum on Investment and Financing Mechanism Innovation and 2017 China Investment Outlook, which host by SUFE Investment Dept. Director Professor Chen Jie. The first keynote speech was shared by Longyun Mingcheng Investment, the Vanguard of domestic private PPP enterprise, Deputy GM Mr. Miao Jijiang, on Development Status and Trend Analysis of PPP. He said, PPP is a major change in investment and financing mechanism, which replaced financing platform with social capital as infrastructure investment and financing subject and hugely changed the infrastructure industry chain. At present, the scale of PPP projects is large and still increases, transactions in second market will increase, and a fair and impartial PPP market is taking shape. In the future, government will continue to vigorously implement PPP and conduct that as a basic national policy.
The Second keynote speech was shared by Fosum Group Sunvision Capital Executive Director Mr. Fang Jianhong on Sunvision PPP Investment Sharing. Mr. Fang Jianhong shared many well-known PPP cases of Sunvision Capital to demonstrate that how private enterprise, using PPP model as carrier, making industry as core, disposing global resources with PE idea, created investment ecological system of PPP.
The last is round-table salon on Trend, Obstacles and Countermeasures of China Private Investment. The Salon was host by SUFE China Public Finance Institute Deputy Dean Professor Fan Ziying, and guests included SUFE Institute of Public Policy and Administration Dean Professor Hu Yijian, RQuest Finance Partner Dr. Chen Jian(Shanghai Thousand People Plan Expert), Dongfang Security VP and Dongfang Finance President Mr. Yang Yucheng(SUFE Investment Department Alumnus), and UN Trade and Development Agency Economic Officer Dr. Liang Guoyong(SUFE Investment Department Alumnus).
Professor Hu Yijian started from the hot issue of private enterprise tax burden. He said that China’s Tax rate is not high over the world, but its private tuition burden is high. And its tax system needs to be improved. The tax burden lacks income elasticity, structure lacks reason, and indirect tax occupies too much. All these lead to a high Tax Misery Index, especially in economic downturn. Dr. Chen Jian mainly talked on credit debt investment. He said that, besides stock investment, fund investment, and real estate investment, debt investment would have a bright future with the deepen of China’s Aging Society, and we need to improve the debt rating system. President Yang Yucheng had a positive attitude to China Investment. He said that the general status of China Investment is very good with socialization of investment intention, extension of investment subjects and diversification of investment activities. UN TDA Dr. Liang Guoyong shared his thoughts on China Investment Trend from Periodical and Structural aspects. He said that, periodical aspect is the surface and structural aspect is worth more exploration, and the details include the lack of support of existing financial system to private enterprises, the separation of high financial profit margin and real economy, the bad synergies between public and private investments, and the dilemma between new economy and old economy. The Guests had heated discussion and exchange.
During the conference, SUFE SPEA Party Secretary Associate Professor Fang Fang issued special certificates to the speakers.
In a warm atmosphere, SUFE investment department dean Professor Chen Jie announced the successful conclusion of the conference. He paid advanced New Year’s call to the presented friends and expected continue dialogue in following year on the trend of China Investment.